杰富瑞上调标普500目标价至5600点：警惕核心CPI上升，看好防御板块

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has raised the S&P 500 index target price for the end of 2025 to 5600 points, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 20 times, while cautioning about historical seasonal patterns and macroeconomic indicators [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.9% by July 2025 according to UN forecasts [1] - Core CPI and unemployment rates are projected to rise to 3% and 4.4%, respectively [1] - The Trump administration's tariffs, effective from April 2025, are disrupting global supply chains and causing a sharp decline in export growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Earnings and Valuation - The S&P 500 index's current valuation is considered high, with expected earnings growth of only 5% year-over-year for 2025, which is seen as insufficient compared to the current valuation levels [1] Sector Allocation - Jefferies recommends an overweight position in communication services (XLC.US) and utilities (XLU.US), while maintaining a neutral stance on real estate, information technology, financials (XLF.US), industrials (XLI.US), and healthcare (XLV.US) [2] - A reduction in holdings is suggested for energy (XLE.US), consumer discretionary (XLY.US), and materials (XLB.US) sectors, reflecting a preference for stable cash flow areas amid macroeconomic uncertainty [2] Geopolitical Considerations - Trump's tariff policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, forcing traditional allies like the EU and Japan to adjust their strategies, with Japan even postponing planned talks to resist defense spending pressures [2] - Geopolitical instability and policy reversals are increasing market concerns regarding cyclical sectors such as non-essential consumer goods [2]