石破茂大选惨败严重冲击！日本央行还会加息吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent election results in Japan may create a dilemma for the central bank, as increased spending could keep inflation high, while political paralysis and global trade tensions provide reasons to delay interest rate hikes [2][3] Economic Impact - Rising living costs contributed to the ruling coalition's defeat in the recent Senate elections, with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [2] - Analysts warn that ongoing political uncertainty could weaken the yen and increase import costs, exacerbating price pressures [2][3] Central Bank Strategy - New Bank of Japan member Junko Koeda emphasized the need to monitor the "second-round effects" of rising rice costs, while other members suggest that the central bank may need to resume rate hikes as inflation risks increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan's current strategy involves a cautious approach, with a pause in rate hikes until the economic impact of U.S. tariffs is clearer [4] Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Kishida plans to collaborate with other parties to mitigate inflation's impact on households, potentially leading to a supplementary budget larger than last year's 14 trillion yen (approximately 95 billion USD) [3] - The ruling coalition's minority status in both houses of parliament may necessitate compromises with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased spending [3] Currency and Market Reactions - Analysts express concerns that Japan's significant debt and political instability may weaken the yen, casting doubt on the central bank's view that cost-push inflation will ease later this year [3][4] - A potential decline in the yen could trigger further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as historical precedents show sensitivity to political dynamics [5]