贸易顺差扩大，为何人民币汇率走弱？经济学家张斌：需求不足

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a paradox where China's trade surplus is expanding while the Renminbi (RMB) is depreciating, raising questions about the underlying economic dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Currency Dynamics - Since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, China's trade surplus has reached new highs, yet the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has declined by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025 [3]. - According to Balassa's theory, faster productivity growth in a country's trade sector typically leads to currency appreciation, a trend observed in Japan, but this has not been the case for China [3]. Group 2: Demand Insufficiency and Market Failures - Zhang Bin attributes the continuous depreciation of the RMB since 2022 primarily to insufficient demand, which also explains the expanding trade surplus and significant net capital outflows [5]. - The insufficient demand has resulted in low inflation and weak asset price expectations, indicating a market failure characterized by price stickiness and coordination failures among market participants [5]. - Individual rational behaviors, such as reduced investment by businesses and decreased consumption by households, collectively contribute to a negative spiral of income and expenditure, exerting downward pressure on demand and asset prices, leading to depreciation of the nominal and actual effective RMB exchange rates [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Currency Valuation - Experts, including Zhang Bin, believe the RMB is undervalued and recommend timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to achieve a reasonable valuation of the currency [5]. - If overcoming the demand insufficiency in the short term proves challenging, maintaining a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the USD while firmly defending the upper and lower limits of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is advised [5].