下周继续“按兵不动”？日本央行发声：选举对利率立场影响不大

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming policy meeting, as officials wish to observe the impacts of US-Japan trade negotiations and domestic political changes on fiscal policy before taking further action [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan's policy committee, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, is expected to decide to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% [1]. - Officials believe that the recent electoral defeat of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will have minimal impact on the central bank's gradual rate hike stance [1][5]. - The decision to pause rate hikes is influenced by ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, with officials wanting to assess the potential effects of any trade agreements on inflation and the economy [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan officials consider it appropriate to continue raising the benchmark interest rate if the economic outlook aligns with expectations, but they require more time to evaluate external and internal uncertainties [5]. - Despite the ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house elections, this has not immediately altered the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory [5]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the government's fiscal policy direction, which may be influenced by the election results [5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - There is an increasing risk of upward inflation pressure, primarily due to rising prices of rice and other food-related items, which have exceeded the central bank's expectations [5]. - Some central bank officials believe that if the government significantly loosens fiscal policy, it will be necessary to monitor its potential upward impact on inflation [5].