Can Netflix Stock Double by 2028?

Core Viewpoint - Netflix has transformed its business model and stock performance, showing significant growth despite being perceived as a mature company, with a stock increase of over 500% in the last three years [2][12]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Netflix reported a revenue increase of 16% to $11.1 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in four quarters, although the results matched estimates [6]. - The operating margin expanded from 27.2% a year ago to 34.1%, with earnings per share (EPS) rising from $4.88 to $7.19, surpassing the consensus estimate of $7.06 [8]. - Management raised its full-year revenue guidance from $43.5 billion-$44.5 billion to $44.8 billion-$45.2 billion, while also projecting a currency-neutral operating margin increase to 29.5% [9]. Business Strategy - Netflix has shifted to embrace advertising as a core business driver, utilizing its proprietary ad tech platform, Netflix Ads Suite, across all markets [7]. - The company has stopped reporting subscriber counts, making it harder to gauge growth drivers, but management indicated growth is due to new subscriber additions, ad business expansion, and price hikes [7]. Content and Viewership - Netflix's content strategy is yielding positive results, with several series and films attracting over 50 million viewers in the quarter, and members watched 95 billion hours in the first half of the year, a 1% increase [10]. - Non-English content now accounts for more than a third of total viewing, indicating the success of its local content strategy [10]. Future Outlook - While Netflix's stock may not replicate its past growth, a doubling of earnings per share (EPS) over the next five years is considered a reasonable expectation, supported by double-digit revenue growth and expanding operating margins [15]. - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is around 50, which is viewed as high for a company previously seen as mature, suggesting that further growth will require substantial merit [14].