沪指站稳3500点后持续上攻：牛市新起点来临

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) has shown a strong upward trend, closing at 3581.86 points on July 22, marking a 0.62% increase and approaching the highest point since October 2024 [1] - A-shares have maintained active trading, with daily transaction amounts consistently above 1.2 trillion yuan since July, and a record high of 1.93 trillion yuan on July 21 [1] - Margin trading balances have reached a three-month high of 1.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.25% of A-share market capitalization, indicating increased investor confidence [1] Economic and Policy Factors - The market is experiencing a confidence recovery period, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and structural reforms [2] - Key economic indicators have exceeded expectations, with significant growth in social financing and manufacturing PMI returning to expansion [3] - The second quarter GDP growth of 5.2% further solidifies the foundation for achieving annual growth targets [3] Sector Performance - Certain sectors such as water conservancy, rare earths, and innovative pharmaceuticals have shown strong performance, with respective index increases of over 20% in the last 20 days [5] - Conversely, traditional sectors like banking and oil have shown weakness, with significant capital outflows from electronics and defense industries [6] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is characterized by a structural rebound, with expectations for continued upward movement dependent on sustained capital inflows [7] - Analysts suggest that while there are structural opportunities, caution is advised due to potential profit-taking in previously high-performing small-cap stocks [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a rotational pattern, with various asset classes presenting opportunities [10] Risks and Challenges - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, with potential risks from real estate downturns and ongoing trade tensions [9] - Despite these risks, some analysts believe that the domestic policy environment and economic recovery will provide a solid foundation for a new bull market [11]