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欧元/美元价格预测:短期内可能出现进一步波动交易
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-22 09:55

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair continues to rise, breaking the 1.1700 level, driven by recent positive sentiment towards the Euro amidst trade tensions affecting the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Tensions - Ongoing trade instability has put selling pressure on the US dollar, with the market closely watching upcoming speeches from Jerome Powell and the European Central Bank (ECB) [2]. - The worsening trade situation has led to concerns over global trade conflicts, with potential tariffs on European exports and imports from Japan and South Korea, prompting investors to seek safety in the dollar [3]. - The EU is considering broad "counter-coercion" measures in response to US tariffs, which could target US services or limit access to public tenders if no agreement is reached by the August 1 deadline [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Divergence - The minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting revealed a split among committee members regarding immediate rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until the inflation impact of new tariffs is clearer [4]. - The rise in US consumer prices in June has reinforced Powell's cautious stance, while the ECB has lowered its deposit rate and indicated that new stimulus measures will depend on clearer signs of weak external demand [5]. Group 3: Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased bullish bets on the Euro, raising net long positions to approximately 128.2K contracts, the highest level since December 2023 [6]. - Commercial traders have increased their net short positions to about 184.2K contracts, marking the highest level in several months, with open interest rising for the fourth consecutive week to over 820K contracts, the highest since March 2023 [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - For the Euro/USD to continue its upward trajectory, it needs to break above the July 1 high of 1.1830, targeting the peak of 1.1852 from June 2018 [8]. - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 could lead to a decline towards the transitional 55-day moving average of 1.1485, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 from May 29, and ultimately the psychologically significant level of 1.1000 [8]. Group 5: Momentum Indicators - Current momentum indicators show a moderate trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising close to 57, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 22, indicating a lack of strong confidence in the current trend [9]. Group 6: Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, combined with the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, suggests that the Euro may face challenges in regaining its previous strength [12].