东方汇理CIO：美元资产地位正被重新审视 A股显现长期价值

Group 1 - The global capital markets are undergoing significant structural changes due to geopolitical shifts, trade policy changes, and diverging monetary policies, presenting both challenges and opportunities for asset allocation [1] - The current market exhibits a "dual-track" characteristic, with the US stock market reaching new highs while the growth gap between emerging and developed markets continues to widen, particularly favoring Asia as a new value area [1][2] - The valuation advantage of the Chinese A-share market is notable, with the CSI 500 index components generally having a price-to-earnings ratio below 10 times, significantly lower than their US counterparts [1][11] Group 2 - Amundi's investment strategy is adjusting to current trends, focusing on "overweighting emerging markets, high-quality credit bonds, and defensive stocks," with a particular emphasis on the Chinese onshore market [2] - The firm is optimistic about the spillover effects of AI technology, believing that innovation will drive long-term growth across various sectors [2][12] Group 3 - The firm emphasizes the need for diversified asset allocation to avoid over-concentration, especially in light of rising geopolitical risks and market volatility [3] - Investors are beginning to reassess their strategic asset allocations, particularly regarding the proportion of dollar-denominated assets they hold, with a gradual shift towards European and Asian markets [4] Group 4 - The US stock market is currently at historical highs, supported by investor confidence in the US economy's exceptionalism, but the high price-to-earnings ratio of 22 to 23 times raises concerns about sustainability [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle in the second half of 2025, contingent on economic data, with potential for two to three rate cuts if economic growth slows [7] Group 5 - Emerging markets are projected to grow faster than developed markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America, leading to structural growth and profit opportunities [8] - The firm favors high-quality corporate credit bonds due to their robust credit conditions and superior risk-adjusted returns compared to some government bonds [8] Group 6 - In equity allocation, the firm prefers defensive or value sectors, particularly in the US market, favoring value stocks over high-growth stocks with inflated valuations [9] - The firm has increased its allocation to Chinese onshore stocks, particularly in the A-share market, while maintaining a cautious stance on Chinese bonds due to limited opportunities [11][12]