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铜:传统淡季逆势冲高,铜的底气何在?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-22 11:18

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the copper market experienced a rebound in prices due to a combination of policy support, tight supply, and positive demand expectations, with domestic 1 electrolytic copper prices reaching 79,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09% over three trading days, challenging the 80,000 yuan mark [1] Group 1: Driving Factors - Driving Factor 1: Domestic Policy Support and Macroeconomic Recovery - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to promote growth in key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a 0.73% increase in copper futures [3] - Despite the short-term challenges in policy implementation, the announcement provided confidence to copper smelting enterprises facing low profits due to ongoing low processing fees [3] - Driving Factor 2: Tight Supply and Increasing Supply-Demand Imbalance - The current tightness in the copper market is attributed to both primary and recycled copper shortages, with the price difference between refined and recycled copper narrowing significantly [4] - The decline in copper prices has pressured processing profits, leading to some processing plants halting operations, while the tight supply of raw materials continues to challenge smelting operations [4] - Driving Factor 3: Positive Demand Outlook - The announcement of a major hydropower project in China is expected to boost demand in the cable industry, although it may not have an immediate impact on copper rod purchases [5] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a short-term recovery due to government subsidies and high temperatures driving air conditioning demand, increasing trading activity in the copper tube market [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - Supply Side: The implementation of a 50% copper tariff by the U.S. is expected to reduce the outflow of domestic copper, but the ongoing challenges in the copper concentrate market will continue to test smelting operations [7] - Demand Side: Anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption may lead to a recovery in demand [7] - Overall, the copper price is expected to remain supported at the bottom, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [7]