外汇局李斌：三个有利因素将支持外汇市场继续保持平稳运行

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market has shown resilience and stability in the first half of 2025, with the RMB appreciating against the USD by 1.9% and maintaining a stable range between 7.15 and 7.35, despite a complex external environment [2][3]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth, reflecting an increase of 17 percentage points [4]. - The foreign exchange market's stability is supported by a robust economic foundation and ongoing efforts to expand domestic demand [4]. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, there was a bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange deficit of 25.3 billion USD, with a notable shift from deficit to surplus in May and June [2]. - The foreign exchange settlement rate was stable at 60%, while the foreign exchange purchase rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 65% [2]. Market Expectations - The foreign exchange market expectations remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB anticipated [3]. - The RMB exchange rate against the USD was 7.16 at the end of Q2, appreciating slightly from 7.18 at the end of Q1 [3]. Policy and Regulation - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a balanced international payment structure and promoting high-level opening-up, which is expected to support the stability of the foreign exchange market [4]. - The market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical regulation, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [5]. Risk Management - The awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises has improved, with the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of RMB cross-border transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [5]. - The foreign exchange market has a rich reserve of policy tools and regulatory effectiveness, which enhances its capacity to mitigate external risks [5].