谷歌Q2财报前瞻：AI难撼搜索业务，反垄断裁决存不确定性，资本支出是否上调成看点

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards Google's AI prospects is optimistic, leading to a significant rebound in its stock price, which has risen 9% over nine consecutive days, marking its return to positive annual growth for the first time since February [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts expect Google's Q2 revenue to approach $800 billion, representing a 12% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share projected at $2.18, a 15% increase from the previous year [5] - Citigroup and Evercore have more optimistic forecasts, predicting revenues could exceed $900 billion, driven by the resilience of Google's search business, particularly in commercial applications [4] - Evercore's predictions suggest Q2 revenue could reach $950 billion, surpassing market expectations by 10%, with an operating profit of $315 billion and earnings per share of $2.21, exceeding market consensus by 3.7% [5] Search Business Resilience - Google's search business remains a cornerstone, contributing over half of its total revenue, with Citigroup forecasting an 8.8% year-over-year increase in search revenue to $527.54 billion [7] - The introduction of AI features has driven query volume growth by over 10%, with over 1.5 billion monthly active users [7] - A survey indicates that 85% of respondents consider Google their primary search engine, with 68% believing Google's AI features are more effective than traditional search [12] Cloud Business Outlook - Evercore predicts Google's Q2 cloud revenue will be $13.1 billion, a 26.8% year-over-year increase, despite potential volatility due to GPU supply constraints [13] - Citigroup anticipates a 27% year-over-year growth in cloud revenue, emphasizing the need for continued infrastructure investment to meet rising AI service demands [13] YouTube and Advertising Insights - YouTube's share of TV streaming viewing time reached a record 12.8% in June, significantly outpacing competitors [13] - Evercore expects YouTube's Q2 revenue to grow by 10%, although actual growth may be more conservative due to last year's low base [14] - Advertising budgets are showing moderate year-over-year increases, with a shift towards channels perceived as resilient to macroeconomic shocks [14] Legal and Regulatory Challenges - Ongoing antitrust litigation poses significant risks, with the U.S. Department of Justice proposing severe remedies that could impact Google's operations [16] - The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of these legal challenges is seen as a drag on the stock price, with potential punitive measures looming [16]