IMF警告：关税非万能药 地缘局势升级或引发变革！

Group 1 - The IMF warns that the global current account imbalance is set to widen sharply in 2024, reversing the trend of narrowing since the 2008-2009 financial crisis [1][2] - The report criticizes the U.S. administration's high tariffs on trade partners, stating that such trade conflicts could have significant macroeconomic impacts and exacerbate inflationary pressures [1][2] - The report highlights that excessive surpluses or deficits may not be problematic in themselves, but can lead to risks if they become excessive, particularly in the context of long-term domestic imbalances and rising trade tensions [1][3] Group 2 - The IMF's chief economist emphasizes that excessive surpluses or deficits stem from domestic policy distortions, advocating for reforms targeting these domestic drivers rather than relying on tariffs [2] - The report indicates that the rise in tariffs has limited impact on global imbalances, as it simultaneously reduces investment and savings in the taxing country, while tariff uncertainty may weaken consumer and business confidence [2] - The report acknowledges the dollar's continued dominance but warns that geopolitical fragmentation could pose risks to the international monetary system, with recent declines in U.S. Treasury demand reflecting market concerns over the U.S. fiscal trajectory [2]