每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-07-22）

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank suggests that if President Trump were to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points, indicating a steepening yield curve trade as a strategy against risks to Fed independence [1] - Nomura's global forex strategy team indicates that the likelihood of a weaker USD/JPY exchange rate is increasing post-Japan's upper house elections, with expectations of fiscal policy expansion without additional bond issuance, which may alleviate downward pressure on the yen [2] - Barclays reports that after Japan's recent upper house elections, long-term Japanese government bond yields may face mild upward pressure, estimating a reasonable valuation for the 30-year JGB term premium at around 150 basis points, suggesting a potential increase from the current level of 145 basis points [3] Group 2 - MUFG analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the yen's recent gains following the upper house elections, citing increased political uncertainty that could complicate trade agreements with the U.S. and pose risks to the Japanese economy and yen [4] - MUFG also notes that despite the European Central Bank's concerns over the recent appreciation of the euro, the currency may continue to strengthen, as market confidence in further rate cuts has diminished [5] - Rabobank's forex strategist suggests that if the Bank of Japan signals a potential rate hike by year-end, the yen could appreciate, with forecasts indicating USD/JPY could reach 145.00 in three months and 140.00 in twelve months [6] Group 3 - Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that President Trump's tariff threats create uncertainty for the ECB's rate decisions, with the central bank expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 2.00% amid unclear intentions regarding tariffs [7][8] - CICC forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of the year, driven by increased net supply due to the "Great Beautiful Act," which is projected to add approximately $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit from 2025 to 2034 [5] - Zhongtai Securities expresses optimism about the long-term investment opportunities in the real estate sector, emphasizing the importance of monitoring local policy implementations and support measures [5]