欧洲人口新高难题依旧（环球热点）

Core Insights - The total population of the EU has surpassed 450 million, marking a historical high, but the population is projected to naturally decline by 1.26 million in 2024, with deaths exceeding births for four consecutive years, relying heavily on immigration to fill the gap [1][2][12] - The EU faces significant structural challenges due to an aging population, with a shrinking working-age demographic, increasing pension deficits, and mounting public debt pressures [1][4][5] Population Dynamics - The birth rate in many European countries remains low, with total fertility rates falling below the replacement level of 2.1, leading to severe natural population replacement issues [2][3] - The proportion of individuals aged 80 and above in the EU has increased from 3.8% in 2004 to 6.1% in 2024, while the share of those aged 65 and older has risen from 16.4% to 21.6% during the same period [2][3] - The youth population (under 15 years) has decreased from 16.2% to 14.6%, indicating a demographic shift towards an older population [2][3] Economic Implications - The aging population is driving up pension and healthcare expenditures, placing immense pressure on public finances and threatening the sustainability of welfare systems [4][5] - In Italy and Greece, pension spending constitutes about 30% of public finances, exacerbating the fiscal burden amid rising public debt [5][6] - The OECD predicts an 8% reduction in the working-age population by 2060, while public spending on pensions and healthcare is expected to increase by 3% of GDP annually [6][7] Labor Market Challenges - Labor shortages in key sectors such as manufacturing and services are contributing to declining economic vitality in Europe [5][6] - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to stagnate, with growth rates of only 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, largely due to the contraction in major economies like France and Germany [6][7] Immigration as a Solution - Immigration has become a crucial factor in offsetting natural population decline, with the EU expected to gain 1.07 million new residents and a net immigration of 2.3 million in 2024 [3][8] - Immigrants have filled approximately two-thirds of new jobs in Europe from 2019 to 2023, providing essential support to the economy [8][9] - However, the influx of immigrants has led to increased fiscal pressures and rising anti-immigrant sentiments, complicating the sustainability of immigration policies [8][10] Political and Social Challenges - The EU is experiencing rising tensions over immigration policies, with member states divided on the approach to handling asylum seekers and border controls [9][10] - The rise of far-right political movements is fueled by public discontent regarding immigration, which is perceived to threaten cultural identity and social cohesion [10][11] - The demographic changes are reshaping Europe's political and economic landscape, potentially diminishing its global influence and competitiveness [10][11]