市场悄然上演风格切换！罗素2000指数逼近“黄金交叉”

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a style shift with small-cap and cyclical stocks gaining momentum, driven by technical breakthroughs, improved market risk appetite, and capital withdrawal from popular AI trades [1][5]. Group 1: Small-Cap Stocks - Since July, small-cap stocks have outperformed larger indices, with the Russell 2000 index rising approximately 3.5%, surpassing the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) [1]. - The Russell 2000 index is approaching a "golden cross," a technical indicator suggesting a new upward trend, marking its first occurrence since January 2, 2024 [1]. - Historical data indicates that a golden cross typically signals a bullish trend for small-cap stocks over the next 3 months, 6 months, and up to 1 year [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Despite positive technical signals, the fundamental outlook for small-cap stocks remains fragile, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally [5]. - Analysts suggest that large-cap stocks are better positioned to withstand economic pressures such as inflation and tariffs, which may limit the potential for small-cap stock gains [6]. - Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 has only gained less than 1%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's 7.3% and Nasdaq's 8.2% [6]. Group 3: Cyclical Stocks - Alongside small-cap stocks, cyclical stocks are also seeing increased investment as funds shift from overvalued large-cap tech stocks to economically sensitive sectors like materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary [7]. - The materials sector has risen 3.9%, consumer discretionary by 3.7%, and industrials by 2.3% since July, all outperforming the broader market [8]. - The performance of cyclical stocks is attributed to resilient consumer and business sentiment, with demand remaining stable in many areas [8].