沉默三天后，印度石油部长宣称：随时能换俄油

Group 1 - India's energy dependence on Russian oil has surged from less than 2% to over 35% in two years due to the ongoing geopolitical situation [3][5] - The primary motivation for this shift is cost savings, with Russian oil being $6 to $8 cheaper per barrel compared to Middle Eastern oil, resulting in over $10 billion in annual savings for India [5][7] - India has become a significant intermediary in the oil trade, processing Russian oil and selling it to Western markets, generating over $19 billion in net profits from this trade in 2024 [10][12] Group 2 - India's refining capacity is heavily optimized for processing Russian crude oil, making it challenging to switch to other suppliers without incurring significant costs and downtime [15][17] - The monthly cost of modifying refineries to accommodate different types of crude oil is estimated at $150 million, with potential production halts adding to the financial burden [17][19] - India's strategic oil reserves are only sufficient for 90 days of consumption, which is below the international standard of 150 days, leaving little room for maneuver in case of supply disruptions [21][23] Group 3 - The European Union has spent €21.9 billion on Russian energy, highlighting a double standard in the enforcement of sanctions, as many countries continue to engage in trade with Russia [28][30] - Public sentiment in India shows a strong preference for maintaining ties with Russia, with 78% of the population viewing Russia as a reliable partner [35][37] - The geopolitical landscape is characterized by selective enforcement of sanctions, with various countries, including the U.S., maintaining some level of trade with Russia while pressuring others to cut ties [39][41] Group 4 - The U.S. has issued a 50-day ultimatum to India regarding its oil imports, which is seen as a strategic move to pressure India while also considering the potential backlash from rising oil prices domestically [41][49] - India is leveraging this time to enhance its negotiating power, exploring alternative payment methods for energy trade that bypass the U.S. dollar [43][45] - The outcome of this geopolitical chess game could lead to a new energy order, with potential compromises from all parties involved to maintain a delicate balance [53][55]