碳酸锂 下跌趋势难改

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing an oversupply due to rapid increases in production capacity and lower-than-expected demand, leading to a significant decline in prices [1][5]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic and international lithium carbonate projects have been successfully implemented this year, resulting in a rapid increase in smelting capacity. However, demand growth has not met expectations, causing inventory levels to rise [1]. - Australian lithium ore production remains stable despite falling prices, with no significant production cuts expected in the short term. The Goulamina and Bougouni mines in Africa are expected to contribute approximately 620,000 tons/year of lithium spodumene concentrate, with further expansions planned [2]. - Domestic lithium ore production has increased by over 30% year-to-date, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. However, medium to long-term supply may contract as Australian mines begin to reduce production [2][3]. Production and Cost Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices have been declining, prompting lithium salt manufacturers to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Spodumene-derived lithium production has increased by over 70% year-on-year, while mica-derived lithium production has only grown by 20% due to lower ore grades [3]. - The domestic lithium salt import volume has increased by 15% year-on-year, with expectations of a sustained 20% growth in imports in the medium to long term [3]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand for electric vehicles has shown strong growth, exceeding 30% year-on-year, driven by trade-in programs and promotional pricing from automakers. The energy storage sector is also expected to grow despite the cancellation of mandatory storage policies [4]. - Internationally, demand for electric vehicles in the EU is accelerating, although it has not yet met emissions reduction targets due to insufficient infrastructure and slow rollout of lower-end models. Southeast Asia's demand for affordable Chinese electric vehicles is increasing, suggesting a potential for sustained export growth [4]. Market Outlook - The short-term weakening of demand is likely to exacerbate the oversupply of lithium salts, accelerating the decline in lithium carbonate prices. However, a recovery in demand in the fourth quarter is anticipated to stabilize prices [5].