业内权威人士：地产狂欢时代结束了，人们需要面对现实

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is facing significant challenges and risks as the previous growth momentum fades, revealing underlying issues and a potential shift in market dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Real estate development investment in China is projected to decline by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, amounting to 466.58 billion yuan, marking a further increase in the decline from 9.9% in the first quarter [1]. - Despite a reported 10% year-on-year increase in the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in the first quarter, this growth is largely attributed to a low base from the previous year and is concentrated in core urban areas [2]. - The broad inventory of residential properties is approximately 2.15 billion square meters, with a depletion cycle of 28.9 months, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - Goldman Sachs predicts a potential further decline in Chinese housing prices by 20%, supported by data showing unsold housing inventory far exceeding two years of demand [2]. - Vacancy rates are concerning, with first-tier cities at 7%, second-tier cities at 12%, and third-tier cities at 16%, indicating a substantial number of empty homes in the market [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The attitude of the younger generation towards real estate has shifted fundamentally, with many preferring to save rather than take on heavy mortgage debt, reflecting a change from panic buying to a more rational approach [5][7]. - High-net-worth individuals are the primary active participants in the market, as evidenced by the structural changes in transaction volumes in cities like Shenzhen, where lower-priced homes are seeing decreased sales [3]. Group 4: Commercial Real Estate - The commercial real estate sector, particularly office spaces, is experiencing a downturn, with average rents in major city business districts declining by 0.73% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% year-on-year [6]. - The shift towards remote work and the struggles of small businesses are contributing to reduced demand for office space [6]. Group 5: Government and Policy Response - Local governments are caught in a dilemma of stabilizing the housing market while avoiding over-reliance on real estate, with some implementing "old-for-new" policies to acquire existing homes for affordable housing [7]. - The government is advocating for a new model of real estate development focused on quality rather than quantity, although this transition may be challenging for both developers and consumers [8]. Group 6: Investment Outlook - Investors are advised to reassess the value of real estate as an investment, as it may no longer be the best option and could become a high-risk asset [9]. - Developers must adapt to new market realities, moving away from high-leverage, high-turnover models towards more sustainable, quality-focused operations [9].