铝产业链价格驱动因素有哪些？

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the alumina market experienced significant volatility, with prices dropping sharply in Q1 due to production recovery in Australia and an oversupply situation [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2985 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 37.77% [1] - Domestic aluminum prices remained high but fluctuated widely, influenced by U.S. tariffs and trade agreements reached in mid-April [1] Aluminum Alloy Market - The price of domestic aluminum alloy ADC12 showed a trend of rising first and then declining, with a year-to-date drop of 3.37% as of June 30, 2025 [2] Bauxite Market Analysis - China's bauxite production from January to May 2025 totaled 25.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.73%, although it was still down 10.98% compared to the same period in 2023 [3] - Bauxite imports surged to 85.29 million tons in the first five months of 2025, a 33% increase year-on-year, with Guinea being the primary source [7] - The import dependency for bauxite rose to 77% in the first five months of 2025, highlighting the significant impact of Guinea's mining policies on domestic supply [10] Alumina Production and Pricing - From January to June 2025, China's alumina production reached 43.68 million tons, up 8.41% year-on-year, despite some production cuts due to cost pressures [12] - The industry faced a temporary loss situation due to falling prices, but profits rebounded to over 200 CNY/ton by the end of June [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market - China's electrolytic aluminum production from January to June 2025 was 21.69 million tons, a 2.42% increase year-on-year, with industry profits remaining high [19] - The total operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum reached 43.82 million tons by the end of June 2025, with all production operating profitably [23] Consumption Trends - In the first five months of 2025, China's housing completion area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, while automotive production and sales saw growth of 12.7% and 10.9%, respectively [25] - The export of aluminum materials decreased by 7.24% year-on-year in the same period, largely due to U.S. tariffs [25] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Global aluminum inventories continued to decline, with LME aluminum stocks down to 345,800 tons by the end of June 2025 [27] - Domestic aluminum social inventories also decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [28] Future Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to capacity constraints, while overseas consumption may improve under supportive policies [29] - The alumina market is likely to maintain an oversupply condition, with prices expected to hover around cost levels [30]