反内卷拯救万亿市场？港A两地航空股再起飞

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector in Hong Kong and mainland China is experiencing a positive performance, with significant stock price increases for major airlines, while the industry is also addressing challenges related to competition and profitability [1][5][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hong Kong aviation stocks showed active performance, with China National Aviation rising by 6.25%, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines increasing by over 3%, and Cathay Pacific rising by 0.17% [1]. - In the A-share market, Huaxia Airlines rose over 4%, while China National Aviation and Juneyao Airlines increased by over 3% [2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) held a meeting on July 22, 2025, outlining nine requirements to enhance the aviation sector, including the establishment of a unified market and addressing "involution" competition [3][4]. - In the first half of the year, the aviation industry achieved a total transport turnover of 783.5 billion ton-kilometers and a passenger transport volume of 37 million, marking year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 6% respectively [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Airlines - Major state-owned airlines are expected to report significant losses for the first half of 2025, with China Eastern Airlines projecting a net loss of 1.2 to 1.6 billion yuan, China Southern Airlines expecting a loss of 1.338 to 1.756 billion yuan, and China National Aviation forecasting a loss of 1.7 to 2.2 billion yuan [6][8]. - In contrast, Huaxia Airlines anticipates a net profit of 220 to 290 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 741% to 1009% [9]. Group 4: Market Recovery and Future Outlook - The international flight recovery remains slow, with only 84% of pre-pandemic levels restored by 2024, and 88% by the first half of 2025, impacting the profitability of major state-owned airlines [8][10]. - The aviation industry is projected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, which may stabilize ticket prices and improve revenue management strategies, potentially leading to a recovery in profitability [14][15].