Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence and credibility are under unprecedented scrutiny, with the outcome of the current interest rate dilemma poised to significantly influence the global economy in the coming years [3][5][9] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The decision to maintain interest rates in July is seen as a precursor to potential rate cuts in September, with a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 2.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by year-end [3][5] - The key variable influencing these decisions remains inflation trends, with upcoming economic indicators expected to provide further insights [3][5] Group 2: Political Pressure and Economic Reality - The debate surrounding interest rates is rooted in the conflict between economic signals of slowdown and political pressures from President Trump, who has publicly criticized Fed Chair Powell and suggested potential dismissal [7][9] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has advised a gradual adjustment strategy to balance the calls for rate cuts with the need for caution amid unclear economic data [7][9] Group 3: Diverging Views within the Fed - Fed officials are divided, with some warning of economic slowdown risks while others, like Williams, predict inflationary pressures [5][9] - Waller, a proponent of rate cuts, argues that current economic growth is closer to zero and presents three reasons for easing: tariffs causing one-time price increases, the need for a neutral monetary policy, and a precarious labor market [8][9] Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Concerns about inflation are rising, with recent CPI and PPI data indicating an increase, and core inflation reaching approximately 2.7% [9] - Waller's analysis suggests that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be overstated, while other analysts argue that the inflationary effects of tariffs are underestimated, indicating a potential rebound in inflation [9] Group 5: Future of the Fed - The race for the next Fed Chair has begun, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Christopher Waller, as Powell's term ends in May 2026 [7][9] - The CEOs of major Wall Street banks have publicly supported the Fed's independence, warning that political interference could undermine the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [9]
美联储7月降息概率跌破95%,内部博弈与压力下的利率迷局
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-23 04:18