MUFG：预计欧洲央行本周将暂停降息 今年或仅剩25基点宽松空间

Group 1 - MUFG expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause interest rate cuts this week, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2%, which is the midpoint of its defined neutral range of 1.75%-2.25% for the year [1] - Inflation has stabilized at the ECB's target of 2%, and while oil prices are slightly higher than previous forecasts, a strong euro offsets this effect, supporting the view that policy is in a good position [1] - Officials are satisfied with current market pricing, which anticipates a further rate cut of about 25 basis points this year, and will continue to use a data-dependent approach without pre-setting a path to maintain maximum flexibility [1] Group 2 - MUFG believes there is still room for further modest rate cuts regardless of the outcome of trade negotiations, with key data releases expected before the next meeting in September, including Q2 GDP and unit labor costs [2] - If inflation data for July and August falls below expectations, it will be more challenging for decision-makers to argue that disinflation is solely due to energy and exchange rate factors [2] - The upcoming large-scale fiscal stimulus in Germany and the tightening trend in France's 2026 budget will create a divergence in fiscal policy within the region, impacting the space and pace of monetary policy [2]