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新兴市场债爆火,与美债利差逼近2007年低点!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-23 05:50

Group 1 - The attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries is declining, leading investors to flock to emerging market bonds, resulting in the lowest spread between high-rated emerging market government and corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries since the financial crisis [1] - The premium of investment-grade emerging market sovereign bonds over U.S. Treasuries has dropped to 1.04 percentage points, while corporate bonds' premium stands at 1.1 percentage points, indicating a tightening of sovereign debt spreads since 2007 [1] - Concerns over the potential impact of Trump's erratic trade policies on emerging markets are diminishing, as investors shift focus to the improving economic conditions in these countries [1] Group 2 - High-rated Gulf countries are becoming regular issuers in the bond market, with Saudi Arabia expected to be one of the largest issuers of emerging market debt for the second consecutive year, utilizing the debt market to navigate low oil prices and fund large projects [2] - The quality of credit ratings in the emerging market space has significantly improved in recent years, contributing to the tightening of investment-grade emerging market spreads relative to historical levels [2] Group 3 - The tightening of spreads reflects a convergence trade between high-quality credit in emerging and developed markets, with global investors increasingly participating in emerging markets, particularly in investment-grade bonds [3] - Emerging markets have been significantly underweighted for years, providing more room for investors to increase their risk exposure in emerging market credit [3] - Some analysts caution that the optimistic sentiment among investors may not account for potential risks such as a sharp decline in global economic growth expectations or inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [3]