日债又暴雷！40年期长债拍卖需求创十四年新低

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's 40-year government bond auction reached its lowest level since 2011, driven by concerns over government spending and a recent trade agreement between the US and Japan [1][4] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.127 from the previous auction's 2.214, while bond yields rose to a record 3.375% [1] - Following the auction results, Japanese government bond yields increased across the board, with the 40-year yield rising nearly 10 basis points and the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2008, up 8 basis points [1] Group 2 - The backdrop of the auction included the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failing to secure a majority in the House of Councillors election, alongside the announcement of a 15% import tariff on Japanese goods by Trump [4] - Okasan Securities' chief bond strategist noted that the auction results were weaker than expected, attributing market instability to news regarding Ishiba's resignation and the US-Japan trade agreement, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4] - Despite pressure on the bond market, the Nikkei 225 index rose nearly 4%, indicating improved sentiment among stock market investors, showcasing a divergence in market reactions [4] Group 3 - Long-term Japanese government bonds are expected to continue facing pressure following the weak demand in the 40-year bond auction, suggesting a potential steepening of the yield curve [7] - Japanese government bond yields are trading at multi-year highs as the Bank of Japan gradually reduces its large-scale bond purchases, with the Ministry of Finance decreasing the issuance of long-term bonds to mitigate market volatility [7] - Following the announcement of tariff measures, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan stated that there is currently no immediate need to raise the benchmark interest rate, although market expectations for a rate hike by the end of the year have risen to over 80% from 59% the previous day [7]