利率下行与存款市场格局的再平衡

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the downward adjustment of deposit interest rate ceilings on the deposit interest rates of commercial banks in China, emphasizing the need for sustainable growth strategies in the deposit market amidst changing regulatory environments and market dynamics [1][9]. Summary by Sections Deposit Interest Rate Ceiling Adjustment - Since 2012, the adjustment of the RMB deposit interest rate ceiling has progressed through three phases, with commercial banks' deposit interest rates showing asynchronous changes compared to the ceiling adjustments [2]. - The downward adjustment of deposit interest rate ceilings has led to a significant decline in the average deposit interest rates of A-share listed banks, particularly from 3.58% in June 2012 to 2.25% in October 2015, a drop of 133 basis points [3][4]. Changes in Deposit Interest Rates (2016-2020) - From 2016 to 2020, the deposit interest rate ceiling remained unchanged, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates in 2016 and 2017, followed by a rebound in 2018 and 2019 [6]. - The average deposit interest rate of A-share listed banks increased slightly in 2020, driven by growth in city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [6]. Recent Trends (2021-Present) - Since June 2021, the deposit interest rate ceiling has entered a phase of active downward adjustment, with significant reductions in long-term deposit interest rates [7]. - Despite the downward trend in loan yields, the average deposit interest rate of A-share listed banks has shown rigidity, increasing by 0.06 percentage points from 2021 to 2023 [8]. Market Rebalancing and Evolution - Regulatory policies and self-discipline requirements have led to a more standardized use of interest rates in deposit competition, resulting in new growth patterns for different types of banks [9][10]. - The growth rates of general deposits for large banks and small banks have shown alternating trends, influenced by the differential setting of deposit interest rate ceilings [10][12]. Future Outlook and Recommendations - The article suggests that the deposit market may face renewed pressures from deposit disintermediation, particularly as interest rates decline and non-deposit products become more attractive [20][21]. - Recommendations for sustainable deposit growth include enhancing non-price competitiveness, strengthening self-discipline in interest rate pricing, and balancing the sources and term structures of deposits [25][28][31].