塑料期货开工率连增引关注，产能释放与需求旺季交织，机构称短期偏强震荡｜大宗风云

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent surge in commodity prices, particularly in polysilicon and coking coal futures, has been notable, while plastic futures have shown a more complex trend with fluctuations [2] - On July 23, the plastic futures 2509 contract opened at 7,370 yuan/ton but experienced a decline, reaching a low of 7,285 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 0.12% [2] - The price movements in plastic futures are primarily driven by policy expectations, with limited impact from supply-side reforms [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of plastic has increased significantly due to the commissioning of multiple production facilities in the first half of the year, with a substantial year-on-year growth [3] - The average operating rate for polyethylene (PE) in the first half of the year was 82.73%, reflecting a 1.67% increase compared to the previous year [7] - Despite high production levels, domestic demand remains under pressure, with stable but unremarkable growth in downstream orders [4] Group 3: Price Influences - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate around crude oil prices, as oil-based production accounts for approximately 65% of plastic production capacity [6] - The production of polyethylene has seen a significant increase, with total production reaching 1,535.18 million tons in the first half of the year, marking a 14% growth [6] - The cost of production is influenced by the prices of raw materials like oil and coal, which have shown recent volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see a gradual recovery in production as maintenance schedules conclude, with a potential increase in supply [10] - The market anticipates a demand peak in August, which could support plastic prices if downstream operating rates improve [9] - Overall, the plastic market is transitioning towards a peak season, with limited downside potential for polyethylene prices if costs do not significantly decline [9]