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济川药业19亿交班背后的增长困局:王牌产品失速、研发投入乏力、高分红掏空未来

Core Viewpoint - The transition of control at Jichuan Pharmaceutical has led to a dramatic response from shareholders, with only 34 out of 19 billion yuan in margin deposits being accepted, highlighting the company's significant challenges in product performance and financial stability [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 8.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.96%, and a net profit of 2.532 billion yuan, down 10.32% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company experienced further declines, with revenue of 1.525 billion yuan, a 36.51% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 47.91% [1] Product Challenges - The company's key products, which previously supported a compound annual growth rate of 21.49% in net profit, are now facing significant declines, particularly the flagship product, Pudilan Oral Liquid, which saw a 24% drop in sales in 2019 after regulatory changes [2] - The product has been removed from the medical insurance directories of 13 provinces, leading to a more than 20% decline in revenue from heat-clearing and detoxifying products in 2024 [2] - The digestive product, Rabeprazole Sodium Enteric-Coated Capsules, has lost market share due to price reductions from national procurement, with inventory levels rising by 23.85% in 2024 [3] Operational Efficiency - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days reached new highs of 114.61 days and 110.01 days, respectively, indicating a decline in operational efficiency [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities as a percentage of total revenue fell sharply from 35.88% in 2023 to 27.15% in 2024, marking a three-year low [3] Marketing vs. R&D Investment - The company has prioritized marketing over research and development, spending 2.954 billion yuan on sales expenses in 2024, which accounted for 36.85% of revenue, while R&D investment was only 445 million yuan, representing 5.55% of revenue [4] - The disparity is evident as the company distributed 5 billion yuan in dividends over five years, with the controlling family benefiting significantly, raising concerns about the sustainability of this cash distribution model [5] Future Prospects - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's pipeline includes the pediatric constipation drug, which faces multiple commercialization challenges, and other innovative drugs that are still in the application stage [6] - The company must address a significant revenue gap due to the underperformance of its key products, as new drugs may not provide immediate relief from the current downturn [6]