尿素“反内卷”行情还能走多久

Industry Overview - The urea industry in China has undergone three phases: rapid capacity expansion, supply-side structural reform to eliminate backward capacity, and currently, structural optimization with new capacity being released [1] - The industry is now in a phase where the elimination of backward capacity has slowed, and new capacities are being concentrated, leading to a more optimized capacity structure [1] - The profitability of the urea industry remains high, with fixed bed plants maintaining profits above 300 yuan per ton, and new coal chemical profits significantly exceeding those of fixed bed plants [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic demand for urea has significantly increased, with projections indicating a demand of 59 million tons by 2025, an increase of approximately 1.5 million tons from 2015 [2] - The government has implemented policies to ensure supply, including halting exports and requiring domestic producers to maximize output during peak demand seasons [2] - Current urea production levels are at a ten-year high, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, and inventories at 741,000 tons, which is 500,000 tons higher year-on-year [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - High supply levels are expected to suppress the potential for significant price increases in the urea market [5] - Demand for urea is currently not supporting sustained price increases, as summer agricultural demand has ended and fall agricultural needs are primarily for high-phosphorus fertilizers [6] - Overall, the current market conditions suggest limited upside for urea prices, with potential variables including coal price fluctuations and future export activity [7]