Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 智通财经网·2025-07-23 08:24Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain its assessment of the economy as growing at a "solid pace," with a robust labor market and slightly elevated inflation [2][3]. Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve is expected to emphasize the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation [2]. - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to grow steadily, with a low unemployment rate and a slight increase in inflation [2]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 2.2% annualized growth rate for Q2 GDP, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts 2.4% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates 1.7% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains in good condition, with employment growth slowing but the unemployment rate unchanged compared to 12 months ago [2][11]. - Employment growth is expected to slow from an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to about 50,000 jobs per month in 2026 [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Inflation is described as "slightly high," with June's CPI report reflecting new price pressures from tariffs [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that tariffs will lead to a rise in overall and core PCE price indices, reaching 3.0% and 3.2% respectively by 2025 [5]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to peak at an annualized rate of 4.1% by the end of Q3 2025 before declining [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026, with potential rate cuts of 25 basis points at subsequent meetings [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to delay rate cuts but suggests that the magnitude of cuts may exceed market expectations [11]. Trade and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to pose risks to the Fed's dual mandate [4]. - Fed Chair Powell is expected to acknowledge the pressures from tariffs and emphasize the ongoing uncertainty in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies [4].