ATFX：大涨两日，黄金距离历史最高点仅余60美元

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly in the past two trading days, driven primarily by a decline in the US dollar index, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook of the United States [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.55% and 1.1%, reaching a high of $3451, while London gold rose by 1.43% and 0.95%, peaking at $3439 [1] - The current prices are close to historical highs, with COMEX gold just $58.9 away from its peak of $3509.9 and London gold $60 away from its peak of $3499 [1] - If the upward momentum continues, gold may reach new historical highs within the month [1] Group 2: Impact of US Monetary Policy - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that Powell may soon resign, which shocked the market and led to a drop in the dollar index [1] - If a new chairman is appointed, it is likely that monetary policy will align with Trump's preferences, potentially leading to significant interest rate cuts [2] - Trump has indicated that high interest rates negatively affect the housing market and has suggested a reduction of rates by 300 basis points or more, which could exacerbate inflation issues in the US [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - From a structural perspective, gold is in a long-term bullish trend, but there are signs of a potential top formation over the past three months [4] - The latest wave of price increase reached a peak of $3438, which is close to historical highs, indicating strong support at the previous wave's 0.618 retracement level [4] - Resistance levels are identified between $3499 and $3425, and failure to break through this range could lead to a price reversal [4]