市场越信TACO、特朗普越敢加税、美联储越不敢降息

Core Viewpoint - The market's calm reaction to Trump's tariff policy may provide the government with room to impose further tax increases, pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more cautious stance, with the effective tariff rate potentially rising to 16% or higher, leading to stagflation risks extending until 2026 [1][7]. Tariff Escalation Exceeds Market Expectations - On July 4, President Trump announced new unilateral tariff rates, with potential rates ranging from 10% to 70%, expected to take effect on August 1 [2][5]. - Bank of America analysts indicated that the latest tariff announcement could raise the effective tariff rate by nearly 5 percentage points to about 16%, significantly higher than the previously expected 10% [2]. Market's Indifferent Reaction as a Catalyst for Policy Escalation - Bank of America noted that the market's indifferent response to tariff news could inadvertently encourage the government to escalate the trade war further [6]. - The lack of market reaction may provide the Trump administration with a buffer to absorb new uncertainties and tensions with major trading partners [6]. Stagflation Risks Intensify, Narrowing Federal Reserve's Policy Space - An increase in the effective tariff rate by approximately 5 percentage points could reduce the fiscal deficit by about 50 basis points, but its impact on a deficit exceeding 6% of GDP is limited [7]. - The new tariff announcement introduces significant inflationary and economic growth risks, with potential inflation rising by about 30 basis points [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses a downside risk to economic growth, potentially undermining the stimulus effect of the "Big Beautiful Plan" on capital expenditures [10]. Long-term Inflation Impact and Federal Reserve's Position - If tariffs are implemented on August 1, there is a risk of larger and more persistent inflation shocks, with core PCE potentially peaking at 3.5% by 2026 [10]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to act may be constrained by the need for clearer insights into the impacts of policy changes, especially if significant changes to the tariff system are anticipated [10]. - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve being "frozen in place" increases as stagflation shocks may extend until 2026, aligning with Bank of America's non-consensus expectation of no rate cuts this year [10].