租赁利率飙升至近40%！“黄金平替”即将出现史诗级逼空？

Core Insights - The platinum market has tightened to unprecedented levels due to tariff fears and speculative buying, leading to a surge in prices and borrowing costs [2][3] - Spot platinum prices have increased nearly 60% this year, reaching new historical highs, while the one-month borrowing cost has soared to nearly 40% [2][3] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are characterized by extreme tightness, with the depth and breadth of spot premiums being more severe than at any time in the past 20 years [3] - The rising leasing rates are partly due to skepticism among platinum users regarding the sustainability of the price increase, as many participants have historically seen prices fluctuate between $950 and $1,100 per ounce [3] - Following the announcement of tariff exemptions in April, U.S. platinum inventories began to decline, but the unexpected imposition of a 50% tariff on copper has led to a resurgence in platinum premiums [3] Supply and Demand - The World Platinum Investment Council estimates that the supply deficit for platinum this year will approach 1 million ounces, further depleting already diminishing above-ground stocks [4]