特朗普再掀关税战，但市场为何对“对等关税”逐渐脱敏？

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has shifted its focus back to tariffs and trade following the passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan," with a series of high-intensity tariff actions initiated in early July [1] Tariff Actions - Trump announced three rounds of tariffs from July 7 to 10, targeting 14 countries with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, 8 countries with tariffs from 20% to 50%, and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, along with a unified tariff of 15% or 20% for other countries [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to stabilize around 15-16% in the near future, with most newly notified countries having a negligible impact on the overall effective tax rate [1][2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of new tariffs, major asset prices remained stable, with the U.S. stock market reaching new highs and the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rising slightly to around 4.4% [5] - Investors appear to be desensitized to Trump's tariff policies, viewing them more as negotiation tactics rather than significant threats [5] Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue surged to $26.6 billion in June, quadrupling the usual level, with total revenue for the first half of the year reaching $87.2 billion [5] - The 10% baseline tariff has generated over $17.7 billion in revenue, with specific tariffs on the automotive sector contributing more than $10.7 billion [5] Future Projections - Analysts predict that if the average effective tariff rate remains between 10-14%, it could yield annual tariff revenues of $300 billion to $400 billion, potentially offsetting the increased spending from the "Great American Rescue Plan," which is estimated to add $340 billion annually [6] - The effective tariff rate is projected to be around 2.3% by the end of 2024, with potential increases if new tariffs are fully implemented [6][10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in June, lower than earlier in the year [11] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts due to the potential for tariffs to exert lasting inflationary pressure, with expectations for a rate hold in July and a possible cut in September [14]