印尼与美国达成贸易协议是好是坏？印尼经济学家抽丝剥茧

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia imposes a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, which may provide a temporary relief but carries significant uncertainties and hidden risks for Indonesia [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The trade agreement could protect Indonesia from temporary tariffs imposed by the U.S. on other economies, but the certainty of favorable conditions is questionable [3]. - Indonesia's exports to the U.S. account for approximately 9.9% of its total exports, primarily involving labor-intensive products, making the trade relationship crucial [3][4]. - Key export products include clothing, footwear, furniture, rubber products, and electronics, which create numerous jobs in regions like Java and Sumatra [3]. Group 2: Uncertainties and Risks - A major uncertainty lies in whether the 19% tariff applies uniformly to all Indonesian exports to the U.S., or if certain products will face higher tariffs [5]. - The Indonesian government needs to fully understand the implications of the agreement, particularly regarding potential punitive tariffs on specific industries [5]. Group 3: Economic and Political Commitments - Indonesia has made significant commitments under the agreement, including purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [6]. - The influx of U.S. agricultural products may harm local farmers and could violate Indonesia's commitments within ASEAN and other trade frameworks [6]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Indonesia should take three key measures: clarify the scope of the 19% tariff, disclose all procurement commitments, and return to a diversified, rules-based trade strategy to avoid over-reliance on any single trade partner [7]. - Ensuring transparency in the agreement's financial impacts and strategic value is essential for Indonesia's long-term trade interests [7].