人民币中间价收复7.15关口 外资增配中国资产仍有空间

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar indicates a positive trend in the currency's valuation, with the onshore and offshore RMB both recovering above the 7.2 mark, reflecting an appreciation since the beginning of the year [1][4]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 23, the central parity rate of RMB against USD was set at 7.1414, an increase of 46 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since November 5, 2024 [1]. - On the same day, the onshore RMB was reported at 7.1605, up 151 basis points, while the offshore RMB hovered around 7.15890, rising over 1100 basis points [1]. Market Stability and Expectations - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining a stable range between 7.15 and 7.35, which has helped stabilize the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [4]. - The foreign exchange market has shown stable expectations, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated for the RMB [4]. Economic Factors Influencing RMB - The RMB's stability is supported by several factors: domestic economic recovery, narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, balanced international payments, and improved resilience in the foreign exchange market [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation, maintaining a clear stance on the importance of market-driven exchange rate formation [5]. Capital Inflows and Foreign Investment - The capital market is witnessing a resurgence, with significant foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which has seen transaction volumes exceed previous levels [7]. - Foreign investors are expected to continue increasing their allocation to RMB-denominated assets, supported by China's economic fundamentals and the demand for diversified global asset allocation [7]. Global Currency Trends - The US dollar's dominance is declining, with a significant drop in its share of global foreign exchange reserves, while the RMB is increasingly viewed as a desirable reserve asset by central banks [9]. - A report indicates that 30% of central banks plan to increase their RMB reserves over the next decade, suggesting a potential doubling of the RMB's share in global reserves to 6% [9]. Conclusion on RMB's International Position - The RMB has steadily risen in international status, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [10]. - Despite the challenges faced by the RMB, including limited capacity for currency export due to China's trade surplus, the trend towards a multipolar currency system is evident, with the RMB gaining traction as a viable alternative to the US dollar [10].