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Group 1: Industry Overview - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, leading to a significant slowdown in price increases among top luxury brands [1][2] - UBS data indicates that luxury prices rose by only 3% from January to May 2025, marking the slowest increase since 2019 [1] - The previous years' strategy of relying on price hikes to drive sales is shifting as the industry begins to stabilize [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - High-net-worth individuals are becoming more price-sensitive, with even affluent consumers feeling discomfort from continuous price increases [2][3] - There is a noticeable shift towards niche and trendy designer brands, as consumers move away from traditional luxury brands that are perceived as overpriced [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is expected to reveal a downturn, with LVMH projected to report a 3% decline in organic sales, and a 6% drop in its core fashion and leather goods segment [4] - Analysts predict that LVMH's Q2 results may represent the low point of the current cycle, with recovery expectations pushed back to at least the second half of 2026 [4] - Some luxury brands, like Richemont, are performing well, with double-digit organic sales growth driven by strong jewelry performance [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The luxury sector is facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and high inflation, which are dampening consumer spending in the high-end market [3][4] - Brands that did not significantly raise prices during the boom period, such as Hermès and Cartier, are expected to have room for price increases in the coming years [5]