存款利率再降 3个月期击穿1%

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continued decline in bank deposit rates, with many rates entering the "1" era, reflecting a broader trend influenced by market conditions and regulatory changes [1][2][3]. Deposit Rate Trends - As of June 2025, the average interest rates for various term deposits are as follows: 3-month at 0.949%, 6-month at 1.156%, 1-year at 1.287%, 2-year at 1.372%, 3-year at 1.695%, and 5-year at 1.538% [2]. - Compared to May, the rates have decreased across all terms, with the 3-month rate dropping by 5.5 basis points (BP), and the 5-year rate down by 3.5 BP [2]. Market Influences - The decline in deposit rates is anticipated due to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent cuts in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which has pressured banks' net interest margins [2][3]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.43%, a decrease of 9 BP from the previous quarter [3]. Large Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The average interest rates for large CDs have also decreased, with the 3-month rate at 1.179% and the 5-year rate remaining unchanged [4]. - The decline in rates has led to a significant reduction in the sales of large CDs, as the interest rate differential between regular deposits and large CDs has diminished [4][5]. Structural Deposit Changes - The average term for structured deposits has increased to 103 days, with an average expected middle yield of 1.78% [7]. - The average expected highest yield for structured deposits varies by bank type, with state-owned banks at 1.99% and foreign banks at 4.34% [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the downward trend in deposit rates will continue, driven by the need for banks to optimize their liability structures and manage costs effectively [5][6]. - The overall market conditions suggest that deposit rates may have further room for decline, influenced by multiple factors including policy rate adjustments and banks' cost control needs [8].