GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Company Overview - GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.19, reflecting a -9.5% change, and revenues anticipated at $1.21 billion, down 19.6% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for July 30, and if the actual results exceed expectations, the stock may experience an upward movement; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.65% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that GFL's Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +36.84%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. - GFL currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a strong potential for an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, GFL was expected to post earnings of $0.04 per share but instead reported a loss of -$0.06, resulting in a surprise of -250.00% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, GFL has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Industry Comparison - Republic Services (RSG), another player in the Waste Removal Services industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.75 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +8.7%, with revenues projected at $4.27 billion, up 5.5% [17]. - Republic Services has also seen a slight revision of its consensus EPS estimate down by 0.4% over the last 30 days, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.16%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [18].