Group 1 - The analyst maintains a hold rating for GFL Environmental, believing that the valuation has already accounted for potential upsides [1] - The second quarter of 2025 results were strong, indicating continued effective execution by the company [1] - The investment approach focuses on understanding core business economics, including competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] Group 2 - The analyst emphasizes the importance of long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation in investment decisions [1] - There is a focus on sectors with strong secular tailwinds, which may present better investment opportunities [1] - The analyst aims to provide analytical and accessible insights to help readers identify high-quality, long-term investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - GFL Environmental Inc. announced that Green Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has entered into a definitive agreement with Energy Capital Partners (ECP) to recapitalize its business at an enterprise value of $4.25 billion, highlighting the growth and value creation potential of GIP since its establishment in 2022 [1][3]. Financial Summary - GIP will receive gross proceeds of $775 million, with approximately $585 million intended for shareholder distribution and $175 million allocated to its balance sheet for future growth [2]. - GFL will receive about $200 million from the shareholder distribution, resulting in GFL owning a 30.1% interest in GIP valued at approximately $895 million post-transaction [2]. - Pro forma for the transaction, GIP's total equity value will be around $3 billion [2]. Management Insights - Patrick Dovigi, CEO of GFL, emphasized that the recapitalization reflects the quality of GIP's management and business, and the proceeds will be used for corporate purposes, including de-leveraging and pursuing growth strategies [3]. - Dovigi expressed confidence in creating $1 billion of value for GFL shareholders through the investment in GIP, noting that the original investment of $250 million has grown to approximately $1.1 billion in just over three years [3]. Strategic Partnerships - ECP was selected as a partner for this transaction due to its expertise in critical infrastructure and a strong track record of value creation [3]. - ECP's involvement is expected to provide GIP with significant capital to execute on a compelling M&A pipeline, enhancing growth and margins [3]. Company Overview - GFL is the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America, providing solid waste management services across Canada and 18 U.S. states, with a workforce of over 15,000 employees [4].

Exhibit 99.1 GFL Environmental Inc. Unaudited Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements For the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 F-1 GFL Environmental Inc. Unaudited Interim Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive (Loss) Income (In millions of dollars except per share amounts) | | | | | Three months ended | | | | Six months ended | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | June 30, | | | | June 30, | | | | Notes | | 2025 | | 2024 | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved consolidated revenue of $1,675,000,000 for the quarter, which is 9.5% ahead of the prior year pro forma for divestitures [14] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter was 30.7%, reflecting a 230 basis point increase over the prior year and 60 basis points ahead of guidance [16] - Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $137,000,000, better than planned due to adjusted EBITDA outperformance [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company completed three small tuck-in acquisitions during the quarter and anticipates closing three more soon, maintaining a robust M&A pipeline [12] - Volume growth was positive across both U.S. and Canadian geographies, with U.S. volume growth accelerating by over 200 basis points sequentially [15] - The company expects pricing to be between 5.5% and 5.75% for the full year, an increase of 25 basis points from the original guidance [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian volume growth was reported at 6.3% for the quarter, with EPR-related activities contributing positively [47] - U.S. volume growth turned positive despite a slowdown in industrial and construction-oriented sectors, indicating resilience in the business model [46] - The company noted that exposure to cyclical end markets is low overall, positioning it well for potential recovery in the macroeconomic environment [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on densifying existing markets where it has underutilized post-collection assets, aiming for the highest returns on invested capital [42] - The strategic growth investments in EPR and the positive underlying trends from market selection are expected to offset demand-side pressures [11] - The company is increasing its adjusted EBITDA target by $50,000,000 or 2.6% for the year, reflecting confidence in its operational resilience [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver industry-leading financial performance despite external headwinds [23] - The operational resiliency demonstrated in the quarter reinforces the belief that the company is uniquely positioned for value creation [23] - Management anticipates a modest working capital investment for the year, with net CapEx expected to be approximately $750,000,000 [21] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a lower current year contribution from M&A activity but expects a larger rollover amount into 2026, setting up for exceptional growth [13] - The company is reaffirming its adjusted free cash flow expectation of $750,000,000 despite increased CapEx [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on GIP business options - Management is in the final stages of concluding the process with two bidders and expects a favorable result, which will lead to a significant rebase of equity [28][29] Question: Margin improvements and self-help levers - Management highlighted improvements in pricing, labor turnover, and synergy realization as key contributors to margin expansion [31][35] Question: M&A pipeline visibility - The company is on track to achieve its M&A spending target of $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 for the year, with a focus on tuck-in acquisitions [40][41] Question: Volume performance specifics - EPR is contributing positively to volume growth, with Canadian volume growth reported at 6.3% for the quarter [46][55] Question: Impact of bonus depreciation on free cash flow - Bonus depreciation is expected to provide a $25,000,000 tailwind this year, with a potential increase in free cash flow conversion by 100 to 200 basis points [60][63] Question: Fleet conversion status - Approximately 20% to 25% of the fleet is currently CNG, with plans to increase this to 50% to 55% over the next few years [104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,675 million, a 9.5% increase compared to the prior year pro forma for divestitures [12] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q2 was 30.7%, reflecting a 230 basis point increase year-over-year and 60 basis points ahead of guidance [14] - Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $137 million, exceeding expectations due to adjusted EBITDA outperformance [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins reached 34.7%, the highest Q2 in the company's history [7] - Pricing increased by 5.8%, 30 basis points ahead of plan, with expectations for full-year pricing now between 5.5% and 5.75% [13] - Volume growth was positive across both U.S. and Canadian geographies, with U.S. volume growth accelerating by over 200 basis points sequentially [13][46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian volume growth was reported at 6.3% for Q2, with EPR-related activities contributing significantly [46] - U.S. volume growth turned positive despite industrial and construction-oriented slowdowns, indicating resilience in the business model [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on densifying existing markets and has a robust M&A pipeline, with expectations to deploy $700 million to $900 million in M&A for the year [39] - The strategic growth investments in EPR are expected to yield significant returns, with ongoing operational efficiencies contributing to margin expansion [10][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate external headwinds and achieve record-setting performance [7] - The updated guidance reflects an increase in adjusted EBITDA target by $50 million, or 2.6%, despite economic uncertainties [11] Other Important Information - The company completed three small tuck-in acquisitions in the quarter and anticipates closing three more soon [10] - The impact of foreign exchange rates is significant, with a $30 million impact on annualized revenues for every 1 point move in FX [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential options for the GIP business - Management is in the final stages of evaluating options for the GIP business, with two final bidders and a favorable outcome expected [27] Question: Update on margin improvements and self-help levers - Management highlighted pricing outperformance and improved labor turnover as key contributors to margin expansion, with expectations for continued improvement [32] Question: M&A pipeline visibility - The company is on track to achieve the high end of its M&A spending guidance, focusing on tuck-in acquisitions within existing markets [40] Question: Volume performance amidst economic weakness - Management noted that despite macroeconomic challenges, volume performance remains strong due to strategic market selection and investments [44] Question: Clarification on EPR contributions to volume - EPR is contributing significantly to volume growth, with management indicating that it was included in the original guidance [55] Question: Impact of bonus depreciation on free cash flow - Bonus depreciation is expected to provide a $25 million to $30 million tailwind, positively affecting free cash flow conversion [60] Question: Fleet conversion to CNG trucks - The company is progressing towards converting 50% of its fleet to CNG trucks over the next few years, particularly in large residential contracts [103]

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.19 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate . This compares to earnings of $0.21 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.04 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.06, delivering a surprise of -250%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.GFL Environmental, which b ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current market trends and potential investment opportunities within specific sectors, highlighting the importance of thorough analysis in making informed investment decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent market fluctuations have shown a significant impact on investor sentiment, with a notable increase in volatility across various sectors [1]. - Analysts are observing a shift towards technology and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to outperform traditional industries in the coming quarters [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies within the technology sector have reported strong earnings growth, with some experiencing year-over-year increases of over 20% [1]. - The renewable energy sector is gaining traction, with investments expected to rise by approximately 15% annually as governments push for greener initiatives [2]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive outlook for certain sectors, potential risks include regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions that could affect market stability [1]. - Companies must navigate supply chain disruptions that have been exacerbated by recent global events, impacting their operational efficiency [2].

The market expects GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 30, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are b ...

Company Announcement - GFL Environmental Inc. will release its 2025 second quarter financial results after the market closes on July 30, 2025 [1] - An investor conference call will be held on July 31, 2025, at 8:30 am Eastern Time to discuss the financial results [1] Conference Call Details - A live audio webcast of the conference call can be accessed via the Company's Investors page or by dialing toll-free numbers in Canada and the United States [2] - Participants are encouraged to pre-register for the conference call to gain immediate access and bypass the live operator [3] Company Overview - GFL is headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, and is the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America [4] - The company provides a comprehensive line of solid waste management services across Canada and in 18 U.S. states, employing over 15,000 individuals [4]

Market Overview - The global digital smart waste management solutions market is valued at approximately USD 5.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach nearly USD 12 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.5% from 2025 to 2034 [1] - The growth is driven by technological innovation, urbanization, environmental consciousness, and regulatory mandates for efficient waste disposal systems [1][18] Technology and Solutions - Smart waste management is increasingly adopted across municipalities and industries, utilizing technologies such as IoT, AI, data analytics, and cloud computing to optimize waste collection and processing [2] - Smart bins with sensors for real-time monitoring are gaining traction, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing collection frequency [3] - Waste tracking software holds about 25% market share, aiding in continuous tracking of waste generation [4] - Data analytics platforms provide actionable insights for long-term sustainability initiatives [5] Application Segmentation - Municipal waste management dominates the market with a 40% share, driven by urbanization and smart city developments [6] - Industrial waste management follows with a 30% share, influenced by regulatory requirements for hazardous waste handling [7] - The commercial segment accounts for around 20%, while residential waste management is emerging with approximately 10% share [7] Technology Segmentation - IoT-based solutions comprise nearly 40% of the market, forming the backbone of smart waste ecosystems [8] - AI and machine learning technologies hold a 25% market share, optimizing collection routes and predicting waste generation trends [9] End User Segmentation - Waste management companies lead the market with a 35% share, followed by government bodies at 30% [10] - Corporates and residential users are smaller segments but are gaining momentum due to rising environmental awareness [11] Regional Insights - North America captures approximately 40% of the global revenue, supported by advanced infrastructure and high adoption of digital technologies [12] - Europe holds about 30% market share, with strong governmental commitment to sustainability [13] - The Asia-Pacific region, with a 25% share, is the fastest-growing market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% [14] Growth Drivers - Urban expansion and technological innovation are primary growth drivers, enabling predictive analytics and optimizing collection logistics [18][19] - Increasing public and private investment in sustainability initiatives and compliance with environmental regulations further fuel demand [19][20] Market Restraints - High initial costs of smart technologies deter smaller municipalities, and the need for skilled professionals presents challenges [21] - Supply chain vulnerabilities and intense competition may affect profit margins and innovation [22] Emerging Opportunities - The shift towards eco-conscious consumerism is creating new opportunities for startups and tech firms in the digital smart waste space [23] - Smart city initiatives in developing regions are expected to drive demand for integrated digital waste solutions [24] - Public-private partnerships are emerging as critical enablers for scaling smart waste solutions [25] Key Competitors - Major players in the market include Veolia Environnement S.A., Suez S.A., Waste Management, Inc., and Republic Services, Inc. [27] Recent Strategic Developments - Veolia entered a strategic partnership with a tech startup for AI-based waste sorting technologies [28] - Suez acquired a mid-sized waste management firm to enhance its local market presence [29] - GFL Environmental launched a digital platform for customer engagement in waste management [30] - Republic Services unveiled a technology suite integrating IoT sensors and AI analytics for route optimization [31] - Remondis received regulatory approval for a new waste-to-energy facility, aligning with sustainability goals [32]