Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, alongside rising market risk aversion due to trade tariff uncertainties and potential EU countermeasures against the US [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On July 22, spot gold prices broke through the $3,400 per ounce mark, reaching a high of $3,433.49 per ounce, the highest since June 16, and closed at $3,431.2 per ounce, up 1.02% [1] - As of July 23, spot gold continued to trade above $3,420 per ounce, indicating sustained high levels [1] - The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield to approximately 4.338% and a drop in the 2-year yield to 3.833% contributed to lower opportunity costs for holding gold [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Trade tariff concerns are reigniting risk aversion, with the new round of US tariffs set to take effect on August 1, and the EU discussing potential countermeasures [2] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting on July 31 is expected to influence market sentiment, with renewed expectations for interest rate cuts despite low probabilities for a July cut [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising inflation pressures are likely to maintain a bullish outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [4][5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks are expected to purchase a net total of 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, marking the second-highest level in history, with China, Poland, and Turkey being the top buyers [3] - 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, the highest percentage since 2019 [3] - Central banks are increasing gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange reserve structures and mitigate risks associated with single currency fluctuations [3][4] Group 4: Strategic Implications for China - China's central bank's gold purchases align with the internationalization of the renminbi, enhancing its role in the global monetary system [4] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking a continuous expansion over eight months [2][4] - The strategic accumulation of gold by the central bank is seen as a move to bolster confidence in the renminbi amid a complex international environment [4]
金价重返3400美元
Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-07-23 16:08