鲍威尔的危机与美元信用的软肋

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to Trump's ongoing criticism of Chairman Powell, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][4] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [1][2] - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are above the Federal Reserve's target, with June's CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - The absolute value and proportion of U.S. federal government interest expenditures are at historically high levels, with interest spending reaching $278.58 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for 15.6% of regular expenditures [3] - The implementation of tariff policies has created downward pressure on the U.S. economy, with GDP growth slowing to 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q1 2023 [3] - The trade deficit remains significant and unstable, with a trade gap of $60.257 billion in April 2025, which widened again to $71.517 billion in May [3] Group 3 - If Powell were to be removed, it could exacerbate the dollar's credit crisis, as market fears of presidential interference in monetary policy could lead to panic [4] - There are internal divisions among Senate Republicans regarding Powell's potential removal, suggesting that the likelihood of such an action is low and could incur high costs [4] - The divergence between the 5-year forward inflation swap rates and the 2-year overnight index swap rates reflects market fears of a loss of confidence in the dollar rather than just concerns over the Fed's independence [4]