国际糖价承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in production, import volumes, and international market conditions, with a potential rebound in the second half of 2025 depending on import dynamics and global supply factors [1][35]. Domestic Market Situation - Sugar production for the 2024/2025 season reached 11.1621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% [4]. - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [4]. - The sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The sugar import volume in May 2025 was 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 33,000 tons year-on-year [7]. - Industrial sugar inventory as of May 2025 was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 32.21% year-on-year, indicating lower sales pressure for sugar factories [12]. International Market Situation - Global sugar production is projected to increase from 180.75 million tons in 2024/2025 to 189.31 million tons in 2025/2026, a growth of 4.73% [26]. - The USDA forecasts a total global sugar demand of 177.92 million tons for 2025/2026, up 1.4% from the previous year [26]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to be affected by adverse weather conditions, with a significant decrease in sugar output anticipated [28]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with estimates ranging from 31.6 million to 35 million tons for the 2025/2026 season [31]. Summary of Market Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance in the domestic market appears loose, with projected sugar production of 11.16 million tons and imports of 5 million tons against a consumption of 15.8 million tons [35]. - The import pace in the second half of the year will be crucial for determining sugar price trends, with expectations of reaching 2.4 million tons from June to September [35].