Group 1 - The bond market has experienced continuous adjustments recently, with the main contracts showing slight declines as of July 23 [1] - The macroeconomic indicators demonstrate resilience, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, slightly exceeding market expectations [2] - Industrial value-added growth in June was 6.8%, indicating a recovery, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 9.7% [2] Group 2 - New RMB loans in June reached 2.24 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations by 110 billion yuan, supported by government bond financing [3] - The central bank has taken measures to maintain liquidity, including a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan [4] - Market sentiment has been affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectations, leading to significant price increases in some domestic goods [4] Group 3 - The long-term upward logic of the bond market remains unchanged, but the current environment poses increased risks for bullish positions due to the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect [5] - Investors are advised to use the futures market for hedging potential risks, while also considering the central bank's supportive stance on liquidity [5]
债市 阶段线做陡收益率曲线
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-23 22:57