张尧浠：贸易谈判突转乐观、金价遇阻回落前景仍看涨

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, influenced by trade agreements between the US and other partners, which reduced market risk appetite and led to selling pressure [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3431.72 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3438.67, and then fell to a low of $3381.55, closing at $3387.02, with a daily range of $57.12 and a decline of $44.7, or 1.3% [3][5]. - The price is expected to remain in a consolidation phase unless it breaks through resistance levels, with potential support at the 10-day moving average or mid-line [3][9]. Market Influences - The US dollar index is showing a weak trend, which may limit gold's decline, but there are still short-term risks of further price drops [3][5]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and PMI figures, are anticipated to have a mixed impact on the market, leaning towards bearish for gold [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent trade negotiations easing tensions, the overall impact on gold prices is expected to be limited, with a prevailing bullish sentiment due to potential interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The long-term view remains positive for gold, supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential bull market resurgence by the end of the year [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate a recent rebound after touching support levels, although there are signs of weakening bullish momentum [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3383 or $3370, while resistance levels are at $3400 or $3416 [9].