金价突破2400美元创五周新高，美联储降息预期助推市场押注

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a nearly five-week high, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.63% to $3410.3 per ounce and spot gold surpassing $3400 at $3406.4 per ounce, marking a 1.43% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao seeing a rise of 7-10 yuan per gram, returning to the range of 1000-1021 yuan per gram, approaching historical highs from June [1] Driving Factors - There is a surge in safe-haven demand due to the impending 30% tariffs on the EU by the U.S. and a stalemate in negotiations, causing market panic [2] - Concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve, following accusations against Chairman Powell and criticism from Treasury Secretary Yellen, have raised fears of a dollar credit crisis [2] - The dollar index has dropped 0.6% to a five-week low, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached a one-week low of 4.348%, reducing the cost of holding gold [2] Market Impact - Gold mining companies are experiencing significant profit increases, with Zhongrun Resources reporting a net profit growth of 161-191%, Western Gold seeing a rise of 96%-142%, and Zijin Mining achieving a record net profit of 23.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4] - Consumer behavior is shifting, with essential buyers opting for lighter gold jewelry (average 30 grams) or rental models, while investors face risks of being trapped at high prices due to lower buyback prices [5] Future Trends and Key Variables - There is a divergence in institutional views regarding future gold prices, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing gold reserves for eight consecutive months, potentially pushing prices above $3500 if continued [6] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential escalation of the U.S.-EU tariff conflict are likely to sustain high demand for gold as a safe haven [6] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 59%, which, along with a weakening dollar, is favorable for gold [6] - Inflation expectations are increasing, driven by a slowdown in U.S. wage growth and potential fiscal stimulus, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategies should focus on monitoring resistance levels between $3420-$3450 and adjusting support levels to $3360, while being cautious of potential disruptions from the August 1 tariff implementation [7] - Long-term strategies suggest prioritizing physical investments in gold bars or coins with low premiums and avoiding high craftsmanship fees associated with intricate gold jewelry [12]