怎么看创新药板块出现的分歧

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with leading companies like Kangfang Biotech and BaiLi Tianheng performing well, while emerging firms like Yahui Pharmaceutical are seeing a "value return" with stock prices reaching new highs [1][2] - The Hong Kong innovative drug market has become one of the best performers this year, but there are emerging market divergences, with some believing the sector has reached a peak and others optimistic about long-term growth supported by policy and pipeline developments [1][2] - The core question is whether the innovative drug sector is at the end of a valuation repair phase or at the beginning of a new value reassessment [1][2] Group 2 - Fund manager Yun Lei from Southern Fund expressed a cautious view on the innovative drug sector, emphasizing the need for rationality amidst market enthusiasm [1][2] - Yun Lei argues that the current innovative drug market is a "new cycle story" rather than a "new narrative," highlighting that the recovery is driven by both domestic efforts and changes in the global pharmaceutical research environment [2][3] - The lack of breakthroughs in basic science and the challenges faced by multinational pharmaceutical companies have amplified the advantages of Chinese innovative drug firms, particularly in the "me-better" optimization space [2][3] Group 3 - The valuation of innovative drug pipelines is highly volatile, influenced by factors such as clinical success rates and commercial policies, where any deviation can lead to significant valuation differences [3] - The current cycle differs from the previous one in that Chinese innovative drug companies are now directly serving as laboratories for overseas firms, indicating an industry upgrade but also a continued dependency on foreign demand [3][4] - Yun Lei emphasizes the importance of clinical data and commercialization in determining valuations, urging investors to distinguish between "true innovation" and "false progress" [3][4] Group 4 - The Chinese biopharmaceutical industry is at a crossroads, facing the choice between chasing short-term trends or focusing on building long-term competitive advantages [4][5] - Companies that pursue short-term gains may face risks of resource dispersion and lack of core competitiveness, while those that focus on addressing fundamental clinical needs can build sustainable growth [5][6] - Novo Nordisk is cited as a global example of "long-termism," achieving success through deep insights into metabolic diseases over nearly a century [5][6] Group 5 - Domestic companies like Hengrui Medicine and Innovent Biologics are exemplifying the strategy of deepening their focus on specific therapeutic areas while expanding their global reach [6][7] - Hengrui has transformed from a generic drug leader to an innovative drug pioneer by expanding the indications for its PD-1 drug, while Innovent has successfully entered the U.S. market with its PD-1 product [6][7] - Rongchang Biotech has also demonstrated the viability of long-term technical focus and differentiated innovation with its ADC product, achieving significant sales and international licensing [7][8] Group 6 - The key to navigating the current biopharmaceutical landscape lies in building an ecological moat through deep focus and understanding of disease mechanisms, rather than merely following market trends [8] - Companies that integrate technical, clinical, and commercial capabilities into a cohesive strategy are more likely to thrive in a rapidly changing environment [8]