华夏基金-ETF投资机会：反内卷稳增长，这些方向或可持续受益

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a new trend driven by policy measures aimed at "anti-involution," expanding domestic demand, and stimulating demand in the hydropower sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3613.02 in 2023 [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to positively impact both PPI and CPI, benefiting traditional industries like steel and new sectors such as photovoltaics and automobiles [1][4] - The market sentiment has improved significantly in the short term, leading to a substantial rebound in commodity prices and a notable recovery in related industry indices, reflecting optimistic expectations for economic recovery [1][4] Policy Evolution of "Anti-Involution" - The concept of preventing "involution" was first introduced in a Politburo meeting on July 30, 2024, and has since been reiterated in subsequent economic work meetings and government reports [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement a new round of growth stabilization work for ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [3][4] Key Areas of Focus in "Anti-Involution" - The current "anti-involution" initiative covers a broader range of industries compared to previous supply-side reforms, addressing both traditional industries facing demand shortages and emerging sectors experiencing supply expansion [4][5] - Specific industries affected include: - Petrochemicals: Facing demand contraction and supply shocks, with profitability under pressure [4][5] - Non-ferrous Metals: Overcapacity in copper smelting leading to sustained losses [5] - Automobiles: Structural contradictions between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, with increasing price competition [5] - Lithium Batteries: Low-price competition stemming from aggressive capacity expansion in previous years [5] - Photovoltaics: Market demand shrinking due to external trade barriers and domestic subsidy reductions, leading to widespread losses [5] - Steel: High fixed costs and weak terminal sales resulting in increased production to lower average costs, further depressing prices [5][6] - Construction Materials: Weak demand due to the downturn in real estate, with prices continuing to decline [6] Short-term and Long-term Strategies - Short-term measures such as eliminating outdated production capacity and limiting production can help improve supply-demand structures and boost commodity prices [7] - Long-term strategies involve establishing a systematic reform mechanism to ensure a balanced market environment, focusing on the gradual elimination of excess capacity while controlling new capacity [7] Key Products - Petrochemical ETF (159731): Tracks the performance of petrochemical industry stocks [8] - Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650): Reflects the overall performance of non-ferrous metal industry stocks [8] - New Energy Vehicle ETF (515030): Represents the performance of companies involved in the new energy vehicle sector [9] - New Energy ETF (516850): Tracks companies in the renewable energy sector [10] - Entrepreneur Board New Energy ETF (159368): Focuses on high-quality companies in the new energy sector listed on the Growth Enterprise Market [10] - Free Cash Flow ETF (159201): Reflects the price changes of companies with high and stable free cash flow [11]