半导体设备ETF（159516）涨近1.5%，北美算力映射+A股趋势回暖驱动下，半导体或迎行情？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant uptrend, driven by strong demand for AI chips and supportive policies for domestic chip manufacturing, leading to a bullish outlook for semiconductor equipment ETFs and related sectors. Group 1: Semiconductor Demand and Performance - Recent data shows a notable increase in global and domestic semiconductor sales, with domestic sales in May rising by 20.5% year-on-year, primarily due to strong AI chip demand [1] - TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, reported record high revenue and net profit in Q2, with net profit increasing by 61%, exceeding analyst expectations, and maintaining an optimistic growth outlook for 2025 with expected sales growth of over 20% [1] Group 2: Policy Support and Domestic Substitution - The domestic chip industry is accelerating the process of domestic substitution due to supply security challenges, supported by continuous advancements in domestic chip technology [2] - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) has a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, surpassing the total of previous phases, focusing on advanced wafer manufacturing, packaging, and materials, which is expected to expedite domestic substitution [2] Group 3: Import Substitution Potential - With financial support and a focus on supply chain security, domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies are experiencing rapid order growth, potentially achieving annual growth rates of 100% to 200% [3] - China's annual capital expenditure on semiconductor equipment is approximately $30 billion to $40 billion, accounting for over 30% of the global market, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution [3] Group 4: AI and Computing Power Demand - The rapid iteration of AI large models is driving an explosion in demand for computing power chips, with predictions that the Chinese AI chip market will reach 153 billion yuan (approximately $21.4 billion) by 2025, positively impacting the fundamentals of semiconductor companies [4] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, focusing on key segments of the semiconductor chip industry chain, and has outperformed major comparable indices since its inception [4]