【华联观察】供给淘汰升温，烧碱价格走强

Core Viewpoint - The price of caustic soda futures continues to rise, driven by policy expectations, industry chain resonance, and cost support from low liquid chlorine prices, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Recent market discussions around "anti-involution" reforms have led to a rebound in commodity markets, with supply-side reform expectations boosting market confidence [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to implement a new growth plan for ten key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [1]. Group 2: Industry Chain Resonance - The chemical industry outlook has improved due to policies aimed at phasing out outdated hazardous chemical production processes, leading to significant price increases in upstream and downstream products such as alumina, coking coal, and soda ash [2]. - Coking coal prices are rising, providing strong cost support for caustic soda, while alumina, a major downstream product, is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations and structural supply-demand imbalances [2]. Group 3: Current Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, 2025, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, with production at 809,700 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Liquid caustic soda inventory is at 383,900 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.56%, while flake caustic soda inventory is at 24,000 tons, also reflecting a month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: Demand Side - The alumina industry maintains a high production level, supporting caustic soda demand, while the viscose staple fiber sector is also showing slight improvements in production and operating rates [12]. - Non-alumina demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with some resistance to high prices from certain enterprises [12]. Group 5: Cost and Profit Analysis - Liquid chlorine prices in Shandong are maintaining a low level, providing some cost support for caustic soda production [17]. - The overall profit margins for the chlor-alkali industry are at a low point but have shown slight recovery, although rising coal prices and high electricity loads may increase production costs [17]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Short-term market sentiment is driven by expectations of phasing out old production facilities, with improved downstream operations and a potential increase in inventory replenishment as the market atmosphere warms [21]. - Future attention should be given to the impact of new production capacity and the implementation of anti-involution policies on the supply side, as well as the potential negative effects of further declines in liquid chlorine prices on caustic soda costs and profits [21].