低利率下的日本商业银行债券投资交易业务

Core Viewpoint - Japan has been in a prolonged low-interest-rate environment since the early 1990s, significantly impacting its economic growth and financial policies [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Phases - Japan experienced rapid economic growth from 1955 to 1970, with a real GDP compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6%, followed by moderate growth from 1975 to 1990 with a CAGR of 4.4%. However, from 1993 to 2024, the CAGR dropped to 0.57%, indicating stagnation [2][3][4]. Monetary Policy and Market Response - The Bank of Japan has implemented various monetary easing policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates, to stimulate the economy since the bubble burst in the 1990s, but the overall effectiveness has been limited [3][4][5]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has been on a downward trend, even dipping below 0% after the introduction of negative interest rates in 2016, making Japan the first G7 country to experience negative yields [4][5]. Stock Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index saw a recovery post-2013 due to quantitative easing, with significant contributions from the depreciation of the yen, which boosted profits for export-oriented companies. However, it only surpassed pre-bubble levels in 2024 [5][6]. Economic Structure and Challenges - Consumption remains the largest contributor to Japan's GDP, accounting for about three-quarters, while net exports have increasingly contributed less due to structural issues and reliance on imported resources [8][10]. - Despite low interest rates reducing corporate financing costs, they have also led to lower capital returns, limiting wage growth and consumer spending, resulting in persistent low inflation [10][12]. Historical Context of Low Interest Rates - Japan's transition to a low-interest-rate environment began in response to the economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, with the Bank of Japan gradually lowering rates to combat economic stagnation and deflation [13][15][16]. - The introduction of negative interest rates in 2016 was an unprecedented move aimed at achieving a 2% inflation target, but it has faced challenges in delivering sustainable economic growth [16][18]. Banking Sector Adjustments - Japanese banks have shifted their asset structures in response to the prolonged low-interest-rate environment, increasing investments in cash and securities while traditional lending has seen slower growth [19][20][25]. - Regional banks have focused on local economies, while larger city banks have diversified into foreign bonds to enhance returns amid competitive pressures in the domestic lending market [30][31]. Investment Strategies and Innovations - Japanese banks are increasingly optimizing their bond investment portfolios to balance liquidity and profitability, with a notable shift towards foreign securities and corporate bonds [30][39]. - Innovations in structured products are being developed to meet the investment needs of smaller financial institutions and investors, allowing them to access higher-yield foreign bonds while managing currency risks [38][45]. Lessons for Other Markets - The experience of Japan's banking sector in navigating a low-interest-rate environment offers valuable insights for other markets, particularly in terms of risk management and investment diversification strategies [39][50].